Optimized Resource Expansion
AURORA is the ideal model for lifecycle analysis and resource capacity expansion optimization studies. Exceptionally fast, this transmission-constrained model uses market fundamentals to forecast marginal prices in each market zone over long-term planning horizons.
AURORA’s advanced logic uses market economics to determine the long-term resource mix under varying future conditions including fuel prices, available generation technologies, environmental constraints, and future demand forecasts. AURORA’s recursive optimization process identifies the set of resources among existing and potential future resources with the highest and lowest market values to produce economically consistent capacity expansion and retirement schedules. Renewable Resource Standards (RPS) can be tested under the future conditions simulated.
AURORA’s speed and flexibility make it easy to create a coordinated, optimized forecast of capacity expansion schedules for multiple market areas. AURORA estimates price and dispatch using hourly demands and individual resource-operating characteristics in a transmission-constrained, chronological dispatch algorithm. This makes AURORA ideal for determining the economic value of each unit over time.
AURORA chooses from new resource alternatives based on the NPV of hourly market values. AURORA compares those values to existing resources in an iterative process to optimize the set of new units.
- Marginal prices calculated for each hour by market zone
- Supply stack generated for each market zone
- Simultaneous whole system dispatch
- Fast, proprietary dispatch algorithms
- Forward-looking market valuation
- Unlimited definition of supply alternatives, including vintage technologies
- Constraints for rate of construction and retirements
- Build to meet planning reserve margin targets
- Calculates capacity prices
- Captures the effects of emissions on plant operations and costs
- Optimizes expansion capacity across all zones
- Constructs new zones and consolidates multiple zones easily
- Provides greater understanding of resource options under various conditions
- Solves interdependencies between prices and changes in resource schedules
- Quickly determines the optimal expansion plan for an entire system
- Factors in price-induced curtailments