Real World Insights
Success Stories
 

Real problems. Real solutions.

Our clients have been using AURORAxmp in powerful and innovative ways for years. Here are a few real examples that highlight why AURORAxmp was the perfect tool for each client’s situation. Many are examples from our annual Electric Market Forecasting Conference.


At the 2016 Electric Market Forecasting Conference (EMFC) we interviewed Ben Stravinsky, Power Market Advisory Head of Energy Ventures Analysis, about his experience using AURORAxmp.

Eina Ooka, Sr. Structure & Pricing Analyst for the Energy Authority was interviewed at the EMFC in Atlanta. Ms. Ooka describes her experience with AURORAxmp.

Morris Greenberg, Managing Director, Gas and Power Modeling at PIRA Energy Group, talks about the future of power market forecasting.

Scott Eiserloh, Principal Engineer at Southern Company, explains his company's search for a market forecasting tool and how they chose and use AURORAxmp.

Southern Company

Southern Company is one of the largest investor-owned utilities (IOUs) with over 50,000 MW of generating capacity and 5 different operating companies in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, including merchant arm, Southern Power Company. Southern Company veteran and principal engineer over forecasting & model development, J. Scott Eiserloh, discusses some of the company’s history in using legacy models and how their search for improvement led them to AURORAxmp at the 2014 EMFC. He discusses their collective user experience, the value of a common database and interface, and their experience with the responsiveness and commitment of EPIS customer support and development. He also outlines the wide variety of applications for which the company uses - or is exploring the use of - AURORAxmp, from fuel & emissions projections and general budgeting to avoided cost and retirement studies to capital project evaluations and outage optimizations.

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Idaho Power

Idaho Power is medium-sized investor-owned utility (IOU) with approximately 1,700 MW of nameplate hydro capacity and 1,600 MW of thermal capacities-coal, natural gas, and diesel, and increasing amounts of wind capacity. Power supply planning engineer J. James Peterson presented at the 2013 EMFC on how Idaho Power used AURORAxmp in an integrated resource planning (IRP) context. He discusses how to model both flexible hydro with storage as well as run-of-river hydro facilities (including efficiently incorporating stream flow forecasts) and how the company modeled combined wind to storage projects to ultimately analyze total portfolio costs over a 20-year horizon. Furthermore, James reviews how they applied AURORAxmp’s risk analysis to obtain appropriate stochastic treatment of fuel prices, load, hydro capability, and CO2 costs. He concludes with recommendations of how they effectively interfaced with MS SQL Server from the AURORAxmp user interface and produced useful queries and reports, like probability of exceedance for total portfolio costs.

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Exelon Generation

Exelon Generation has one of the largest portfolios of electricity generation capacity in the United States, and is the largest owner/operator of nuclear plants in the country. Exelon delivers electricity in northern Illinois via ComEd and southeastern Pennsylvania via PECO. In 2009, Exelon’s Power Team underwent a major model calibration effort. Market analysts Derek Salvino and Chris Handwerk presented on that effort and the results of that effort at Exelon. With careful incorporation of historical data and appropriate model assumptions, they were able to perform a very accurate backcast with AURORAxmp and help the company gain confidence in the team’s forecasting ability going forward with the use of the model. AURORAxmp’s speed, transparency and data import flexibility enabled Exelon to successfully accomplish this goal in a reasonable time frame. This presentation contains insights and helpful recommendations to anyone seeking to improve their modeling accuracy.

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PA Consulting

PA Consulting is a top-tier consulting firm serving many industries, including energy and utilities, with offices in Europe, the Nordics, the Americas, the Gulf and Asia Pacific. Managing consultant and power industry veteran, Bill Babcock, presented on "Nodal Insights for Generation Owners" at the 2014 EMFC and discusses why both local and interregional transmission constraints matter. He outlines what constitutes nodal hub prices vs. zonal prices, and discusses the role shift factors, congestion, and marginal losses have on prices. Based on work he has done modeling PJM with AURORAxmp’s Nodal Capability, including its LMP contributions output report, Bill shows how to identify those constraints that drive congestion-based LMP differences.

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