EMFC Addresses Head-on the Tectonic Industry Changes

With record attendance in one of the most iconic tourist destinations in the world, the 20th Annual Electric Market Forecasting Conference (EMFC) took place September 6-8 in Las Vegas, NV. This industry-leading conference assembled top-notch speakers and gave an exclusive networking experience to attendees from start to finish.

The pre-conference day featured in-depth sessions designed to maximize the value of the Aurora software for its users. Advanced sessions included discussions on resource modeling and improving model productivity, recent database enhancements including the disaggregation of U.S. resources, an update on the nodal capability and data, and other model enhancements.

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Michael Soni, Economist, Support | EPIS

Before the afternoon Users’ Group meeting started, EPIS announced that it was dropping “xmp” from the name of its flagship product to purely Aurora, and unveiled a fresh logo. Ben Thompson, CEO of EPIS said, “The new logo reflects our core principles of being solid and dependable, of continuously improving speed and performance, and of our commitment to helping our customers be successful well into this more complex future.”

That evening, attendees kicked-off the main conference with a night under the stars at Eldorado Canyon for drinks, a BBQ dinner and a tour of the Techatticup Mine; the oldest, richest and most famous gold mine in Southern Nevada.

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Eldorado Canyon, Techatticup Mine

On Thursday, thought leaders from across the industry presented various perspectives on the complex implications that recent industry changes will have on grid operations, future planning and investments. The forum session opened with Arne Olson, a partner with E3 Consulting in San Francisco, discussing California’s proposed legislation SB-100, which aimed to mandate that 100% of California’s energy must be met by renewable sources by 2045, along with the bill’s implications for Western power markets and systems. He pointed out that SB-32, last year’s expansion of earlier legislation, which mandates a 40% reduction in GHG emissions (below the 1990 levels by 2030), is actually more binding than SB-100. He explained the economics of negative prices, why solar output will be increasingly curtailed and posited that CAISO’s famous “duck curve” is becoming more an economic issue vs. the reliability issue it was originally intended to illustrate.

Other Thursday morning presentations included “The Rise of Utility-Scale Storage: past, present, and future” by Cody Hill, energy storage manager for IPP LS Power, who outlined the advances in utility-scale lithium ion batteries, and their expected contributions to reserves as well as energy; Masood Parvania, Ph.D., professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Utah, who described recent advances in continuous-time operation and pricing models that more accurately capture and compensate for the fast-ramping capability of demand response (DR) and energy storage device; and Mahesh Morjaria, Ph.D., vice president of PV systems for First Solar who discussed innovations in PV solar module technology, plant capabilities and integration with storage.

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Masood Parvania, Ph.D., Director – Utah Smart Energy Lab | The University of Utah

The afternoon proceeded with Mark Cook, general manager of Hoover Dam, who gave a fascinating glimpse into the operations and improvements of one of the most iconic sources of hydro power in the country; and concluded with Lee Alter, senior resource planning analyst and policy expert for Tucson Electric Power, who shared some of the challenges and lessons learned in integrating renewables at a mid-sized utility.

Networking continued Thursday afternoon with a few of the unique opportunities Las Vegas offers. In smaller groups attendees were able to better connect with each other while enjoying one of three options which included a delicious foodie tour, swinging clubs at TopGolf, or solving a mystery at the Mob Museum.

The final day of the conference was devoted to giving Aurora clients the opportunity to see how their peers are using the software to solve complex power market issues. It featured practical discussions on how to model battery storage, ancillary services, the integration of renewables and an analysis of the impact of clean energy policies all while using Aurora.

The conference adjourned and attendees headed out for a special tour of the Hoover Dam which included a comprehensive view of the massive dam and its operations, and highlighted many of the unique features around the site.

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Hoover Dam, Power Plant Tour

The EMFC is a once-a-year opportunity for industry professionals. The 20th Annual EMFC addressed head-on the tectonic industry changes (occurring and expected) from deep renewable penetration, advances in storage technologies, and greater uncertainty. Join EPIS next year for the 21st Annual EMFC!

For more information on the 2017 speakers, please visit http://epis.com/events/2017-emfc/speakers.html
To obtain a copy of any or all of the presentations from this year’s EMFC, Aurora clients can go to EPIS’s Knowledge Base website using their login credentials here. If you do not have login credentials, please email info@epis.com to request copies.

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The New Electric Market in Mexico

The Role of Zonal Resource Planning Analyses

On January 26, 2016 a once-in-a-lifetime event occurred that may have been overlooked by the casual observer: Mexico launched the first phase of its reformed, now competitive, electric market. The day-ahead market began for the Baja Mexico interconnection and is the first component of a comprehensive change to the nation’s electric system.

Over the last few years, sweeping market reforms and designs were drafted, approved by the government, and are now beginning to be implemented in a fundamental shift for electricity in Mexico. The expectation is that incorporating a market structure will modernize a constrained and aging system, improve reliability, increase development of renewable generation and drive new investment.

A market shift like this underscores the critical need to produce meaningful and accurate analyses for long-term resource planning, in addition to participating in the day-ahead nodal market.

The importance of data availability to market participants cannot be overstated. As a result of the market reforms in Mexico, the sole utility, Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), is being split into multiple entities and government organizations are being restructured to address the change from a state-run system to a competitive marketplace. Yet, the detailed data required for trading activities, such as those begun in January, and to support the proposed nodal market is difficult to obtain. Sources for much of this data are still being determined and still not available in some cases.

However, for typical generator development and economics, investment, and lifecycle forecasting – studies that require 30-40 year planning horizons – data is available. Resource planning analytics have become imperative to the development of new generation and transmission, informing investment in the energy sector, producing integrated resource plans for utilities, as well as numerous different studies for other stakeholders. Planning tools like AURORAxmp play a key role in these analyses, but so does the need for accurate market data.

Dispatch simulation models used for these studies typically define market topographies at the zonal (or control area) level. Mexico is currently divided into nine of these zones, or, “control regions”.

New Electric Market Control Regions in Mexico

Each of these zones contains generator information, load/demand information, and aggregated transmission capacities to/from adjoining zones. This data can be used by the dispatch simulation to forecast prices, value, risk, etc. for the study period. In the case of resource planning, it can produce detailed capacity expansion analyses to understand:
-Understand the value and operation of existing units.
-Determine whether to retire uneconomic or obsolete generators.
-Consider the value and performance of new generation that may have been added by the simulation.

Analysts can specify additional information such as new generation technologies (e.g. renewable generator options), capital costs, return components and other financial information to produce results that will inform build/buy decisions.

AURORAxmp has been used in a variety of studies in Mexico since 2002. Consultants and IPPs have utilized the software to produce meaningful results used in long-term resource planning decisions, and the zonal topography has provided the advantage of demonstrating value in the current market.

Developing a solid fundamental outlook that allows the assessment of potential long-term risks and opportunities is imperative for decision making and sound financial planning whether you are assessing the development a new power plant or acquiring an existing asset in Mexico. The wholesale power market in Mexico is expected to from a day-ahead and real-time nodal market to include traded pricing hubs with a futures market. A zonal model using AURORAxmp can provide an invaluable tool for long-term price forecasting, scenario analysis and asset valuation for the new Mexican reality.
– Marcelo Saenz, Pace Global, A Siemens Business

Although the proposed market will eventually operate at the nodal level, long-term studies at the zonal level remove the effects of temporary events at the nodal level, thus providing a more stable result for financial decisions.

AURORAxmp has the robust abilities to simulate both zonal and nodal markets. However, its leading capabilities in performing long-term resource planning analysis will continue to be especially important for markets, like Mexico, that will go through enormous changes and growth over the next few years.

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